6 Predictions For Games in 2025
Written by Michail Katkoff, founder of Deconstructor of Fun and a games industry veteran of 15 years. He swears he can count beyond six….
Welcome to Deconstructor of Fun’s Annual Mobile Game Predictions for 2025!
Since 2016, we’ve been peering into the crystal ball of the mobile gaming industry, offering insights that are anything but ordinary. What sets our predictions apart? They’re data-driven, boldly stated, and—most importantly—interactive.
Here’s what makes our prediction roundup special:
Data-Driven Insights: We don’t just guess; we analyze. Our predictions are rooted in hard data, market trends, and industry expertise. Special thank to Sensor Tower for supporting our analysis with data - and especially Sam Aune for helping us out with all the graphs and more!
Bold Statements: We’re not afraid to go out on a limb and be wrong. Our predictions are designed to spark discussion and challenge conventional wisdom.
Your Voice Matters: For each prediction, we invite you, our readers, to cast your vote. Do you think it’s likely to come true? Your input becomes part of the story.
Dve in, debate, and decide. Whether you’re an industry veteran or a casual gamer, your perspective counts. So, buckle up and get ready to explore what 2025 might have in store for the world of mobile gaming.
Let the predictions begin!
Prediction #1 2025 Will Be Better - But Not By Much
Four trends held the growth of mobile games for the past couple of years:
1. Inflation decreases disposable income, which in turn decreases spending on games. We learned this over the past years.
2. The geopolitical situation has only got worse. This not only raised consumer prices through the disruption of trading routes but also impacted consumers’ willingness to spend.
3. Competition for media consumption has intensified with streaming, shopping, and social media platforms taking an ever larger portion of consumers’ screen time - and wallet. As a result, apps account today for more than 50% of all in-app purchase revenues growing past the stagnated mobile gaming revenues.
While the games’ revenue stagnated apps kept on growing.
source: Sensor Tower
4. The structural shifts in privacy drastically reduced access to the data that was imperative to targeting and attributing ads. Ultimately less access to data meant less targeted ads. This led to less effective marketing spend. Which in turn, meant lower paybacks and lower marketing budgets. Cut in budgets resulted in reduced quality and quantity of downloads. Which ultimately led to lower revenue.
Apple’s privacy changes had catastrophic effects on the mobile gaming industry.
I believe that 2025 will be a better year for games than the year prior. Inflation has gone down in key economies. There’s talk about ending the wars. Companies have learned to grow in the post-IDFA environment as well as to monetize outside the app stores. These are positive trends. But they won’t take us back in time to double-digit growth. Unfortunately.
The real issue is that the pie is not growing. The mobile market has finally matured after a decade of double-digit growth. Game companies achieve growth by ‘stealing players’. Today we are living in a market where a “winner-takes-all” approach prevails. Only those with the deepest pockets can fully utilize it.
Vote: Will the market growth in the 2025 account be incremental or exponential?
Prediction #2 Subscription Service Funding Dry Out
For the past couple of years Netflix, Apple, and Microsoft offered big checks to grow their game catalogs. But unfortunately, those days are coming towards the end.
It’s telling that even Netflix can’t make Netflix for Games work.
What do Apple, Microsoft, and Netflix have in common? All three have also taken a beating when it comes to games:
Apple Arcade has long lost its limelight. The people running have long left and the big checks have run out. Today the service is better known (within the industry) for late payments, stonewalled studios, terrible tech support and axed games.
Xbox Game Pass has missed its sales targets now three years running.
As for Netflix Games, according to reliable sources, they’ve spent north of $3 billion in exactly three years while struggling to get any sustained traction. With over 100 games released, mostly ports or rewarmed mobile titles, the service has generated about 270 million downloads and no revenue. There’s major restructuring going on with “the founder of Netflix Games” abandoning his post and studios being closed.
The reasons why subscription gaming doesn’t work are evident:
Firstly, most of the engagement, on all platforms, goes into free-to-play games. The Fortnite, Brawl Stars, Robloxes, and Candy Crushes of the World. There’s no way a good premium game can compete against a good free-to-play game in terms of engagement.
Secondly, the expensive back catalogs these services have amassed of 2-5-year-old games are not as attractive. Players rather engage with the latest events and seasons running in the top live games.
Thirdly, there’s no incentive for an exceptional developer to launch on these platforms. If games in Game Pass can expect to lose around 80 percent of [their] expected premium sales on Xbox that means developers choose the subscription route only if they think their game won’t sell otherwise (read: not that good). Or as in the case of Netflix Games, you sell a game that never succeeded on the platform with just the microtransactions removed.
The subscription services were good for game studios. They wrote silly checks and accepted our bloated development plans. But the days of building a catalog at all costs are coming to an end. Expect funding from subscription services to dry up in 2025.
Vote: Will the subscription funds to developers dry out?
Prediction #3 AI-tools Fails to Deliver on the Lofty Promises
AI tools promise to supercharge gaming. Yet to date, the only supercharged part of AI tools is their funding. And that will remain in 2025.
'I would love to say that it’s going to make things cheaper, quicker, better, or easier to make hits. I don’t think that’s the case.'
Strauss Zelnick, CEO of Take-Two Interactive
To date, AI’s impact in 2024 was more incremental than transformative. Small and mid-size Teams benefited most, leveraging AI to amplify creativity and streamline resource-intensive processes like asset creation and QA testing. Larger studios, however, struggled to integrate these tools into established workflows for blockbuster titles.
Aream & Co’s CEO study shows that companies are adopting AI. Bit if the most value creation is in making cheaper faster pictures and code snippets, the impact is more incremental than transformative.
But while AI tools offer a lot of efficiencies, they can also lead to the overall market experiencing a massive drop in the quality of games in the short term.
One thing is clear: AI may not be the panacea some hoped for, but it’s no passing fad either. It’s a toolset that will reward those who adapt and challenge those who don’t—though whether it can truly revolutionize gaming remains to be seen.
Vote: Will AI-tools deliver on their lofty promises in 2025?
Prediction #4 DEI Gets Backtracked
*Normally, we’d stray away from cultural topics, but since DEI has a direct impact on games and gamers, it falls into the realm of trends we should discuss - without taking sides.
The post-Trump shift in the U.S. has had a profound impact on how companies approach Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI). Once a hot-button initiative celebrated across the industry and championed by McKinsey consultants to the C-suites with questionable methodology, DEI has begun to lose its luster as companies face mounting evidence that it may be working against their interests.
In 2022, Activision Blizzard released a blog detailing their Diversity Space Tool: a new system for character design, developed by King and the MIT Game Lab, which translates elements of diversity into character attributes. It seems like the post has been taken down and deleted from the company blog. A sign if DEI efforts being backtracked?
Public commitments to DEI were initially seen as a way to align with cultural trends and attract diverse talent, but the backlash— from both employees and vocal communities—has made the strategy a liability. Many gaming companies are quietly shelving or downscaling DEI programs, finding that the optics of “wokeness” alienate segments of their audience, fuel internal division, and overshadow core business goals
This retreat isn’t just about external pressure; it’s also a recognition of the challenges DEI brings to creative and business dynamics.
Game studios, already navigating razor-thin margins and unpredictable markets, are finding DEI initiatives to be a distraction that complicates hiring, product design, and workplace culture. Rather than fostering cohesion, these programs often exacerbate tensions, with staff feeling tokenized or frustrated by conflicting priorities.
As a result, game companies will be refocusing on what they do best: creating games that appeal to the broadest possible audience. The pendulum is swinging back to pragmatism, leaving behind the idealism of the DEI era in favor of strategies that prioritize growth and sustainability.
In practice, you can expect major publishers to shut down their DEI teams and stray away from content and messaging that fuels vocal communities.
Vote: Will DEI get backtracked or will it stay as a pillar for both content and hiring in games?
Prediction #5 Riot, Supercell, and Others Western Publishers Distance Themselves from China
Western game companies will be distancing themselves from Chinese powerhouses such as Tencent and NetEase as a strategic response to a volatile geopolitical and regulatory environment. In 2025 Chinese associations are more of a liability than an asset.
With Tencent being designated as a military company it’s only a matter of time before it’s Western crown jewels break free or get sold.
What’s common between Riot Games and Supercell? They are both two of the biggest names in gaming. They create and operate some of the biggest and best live games players ever made. Games that rely on the most detailed user data to drive constant improvements. And they are both being majority-owned by Tencent. As is Miniclip, by the way.
With Tencent being designated as a military company it’s only a matter of time before it’s Western crown jewels break free or/and get sold.
image: retrostylegames
For years, the allure of China as the world’s largest gaming market made Tencent’s investments seem like golden tickets. But now, the narrative has flipped. Between escalating tensions between the U.S. and China, restrictive regulations from Chinese authorities, and a growing perception in Western markets that Chinese ownership comes with strings attached, these companies are treading carefully to safeguard their global reputations.
Then there’s the issue of public perception. In Western markets, particularly in the U.S. and Europe, the narrative around Chinese influence has grown increasingly negative, fueled by concerns over data privacy, censorship, and economic leverage. For Riot and Supercell, distancing themselves from Tencent allows them to navigate these sensitivities more effectively. Whether it’s ensuring that player data remains secure or emphasizing creative independence, these moves are about future-proofing their businesses in a climate where “made in China” can trigger skepticism.
Ultimately, this isn’t just a tactical retreat; it’s a recalibration for long-term survival in an industry that’s as much about optics as it is about delivering great games.
It wouldn’t be a surprise if both Supercell and Riot sought to IPO (together?) to pay/break away from their Chinese owners. After all, Supercell hired a seasoned public company CFO so we know where their head is at.
You can also expect both companies to having M&A conversations with possible suitors before Trump’s second term is in full swing.
Vote: Will Chinese ownership become a problem for Western game studios in 2025?
Prediction #6 Gaming VCs Go General
Gaming VCs will be increasingly shifting their attention to investments outside gaming—into tech, apps, and platforms. This pivot is driven in part by the gaming industry’s stagnation following its pandemic-era boom.
During the pandemic, gaming experienced explosive growth as lockdowns made gaming a primary source of entertainment. Back then, VCs were the super spreaders investing in any company that could utter the word “gaming” and show a LinkedIn profile with an internship at a Big Name Publisher.
However, the post-pandemic reality has been far less rosy. Growth has plateaued, and engagement levels have normalized. This slowdown has made it harder for gaming startups to deliver the kind of exponential returns that VCs need to justify their high-risk bets.
When gaming was riding high, VCs amassed massive war chests, convinced that the industry’s growth was sustainable. Now, these funds are sitting on billions of dollars that need to be deployed. But with fewer high-growth opportunities in gaming, these VCs are broadening their focus to adjacent sectors that share similar attributes—like tech platforms, social apps, and tools that intersect with gaming but have broader market potential.
This diversification allows them to deploy their capital at scale while still betting on spaces that leverage their gaming expertise, such as apps, tools, infrastructure, and platform companies.
Despite gaming VCs' record war chests raised during the COVID-infused gaming boom are not anymore translating into investments in gaming companies. At the same time, anything even broadly adjacent to gaming, such as apps, AI-tools, and payment solutions, are pulling in the capital.
Graph: Konvoy Ventures
For the future of venture capital in gaming, this shift signals a cooling of the hype cycle. Fewer gaming-specific funds will likely emerge, and existing funds will increasingly position themselves as tech generalists with gaming as a specialty. While this may mean less capital flowing directly into game studios and publishers, it also opens the door for innovation in gaming-adjacent sectors that can ultimately benefit the industry.
The bottom line? The stagnating gaming market is a mismatch to the COVID-sized gaming funds pushing them to invest outside of it. That could mean that we don’t need so many nor so big gaming funds.
Vote: Will the gaming VCs focus shift outside game studios?
