A few weeks ago, Rockstar captivated the internet with the trailer of GTA VI.
The narrative, theme choices, and visual quality received widespread praise, hinting a fantastic single-player experience.

However, in the long run that may not be that relevant. Yes, part of GTA V's enduring success is due to its great single-player experience and re-releases on multiple platforms. But that’s not the whole story.

A key component of its GTA V long-lasting performance has been its Online mode, which still keeps getting regular updates and commands a massive active player base. I’m sure many in the industry would be shocked if we were to look at the proportions of time spent and revenue generated by single-player and upfront sales versus Online and its related IAPs.

To give some context on the magnitude of GTA V, as of today: In the last 30 days GTA V was the biggest game on Twitch by average viewer count and total hours watched, and the 2nd in terms of channels (source: Twitchmetrics). And during that same period it has been in the Top 5 Steam games with most concurrent players (source: SteamDB).

So while GTA VI single-player is crucial for initial sales, ultimately its Online mode is what will determine if it becomes bigger than its predecessor.

At the moment, there is no information about how the Online will work in GTA VI, or even if it will be one at all at launch. Some game websites have even hinted that the new GTA might not even have a direct successor mode to GTA V Online, as that would fragment the playerbase.

My prediction is that GTA VI will have a direct sequel to the Online mode of the previous game, and that it will be available at launch or very close to it, that the game will have a greater huge focus on it than previous installments, and that GTA V and its Online mode will be completely sunset after GTA VI launches.

This is because surely folks at Rockstar are aware that long term performance in GTA V has been greatly linked to it, and because GTA V’s Online has great limitations which diminish its capacity to generate engagement and revenue, which are easier to solve by creating a new product than by incrementally changing what it already exists.

As for the risk of fragmenting the player base, I think it’s actually non existent because virtually most GTA V players will buy GTA VI at launch. So what better moment to make them transition into a new Online than at that point?
The more they wait, the more risk that newcomers to GTA VI may go back to the previous game. And the lack of an Online mode could actually endanger the sales of GTA VI.

In summary, the best option for Rockstar is to aim to transfer the big majority of the player base from GTA V to GTA VI, and from GTA VI single-player towards its Online mode. That way they have massive MAU getting in an Online product optimized for long term engagement and revenue performance.

However, a  superior Online experience in GTA VI is not something to take for granted: Red Dead Redemption 2 offered a superb SP, in many aspects better than GTA V’s. However, it’s subpar Online limited its performance in the long run.
And it could be fair to say that some design decisions in the single-player mode actually limited the ability of its Online to engage.

In my opinion, to succeed, GTA 6 Online should improve upon GTA V’s in several points:

1) PERMANENCE: 

GTA V's Online has an “on the spot” instancing system, which dynamically generates short-lived instances where players bring their buildings and possessions.
While this generated a somewhat effective arcade experience, it severely limited the amount and depth of player interactions.

Players could not generate organizations and locations that would remain in game, thus not enabling having goals beyond a session or the creation of long-term grudges between gangs, and not having shared spaces.
Additionally, players could barely interact with the possessions of others, territories couldn’t be disputed and more because possessions were essentially cut-off from the actual game world.

This generated an online experience that was ultimately feeling very shallow.

A servers-based model, where possessions and organizations remained regardless of the player, would enable an Online experience with many more possibilities to keep players engaged beyond a single session of mindless action.

2) ROLEPLAYING & SLICE-OF-LIFE FEATURES: 

One of the most popular ways of playing GTA online games is roleplaying, where users take the role of not only criminals but also regular citizens (police officers, firefighters, paramedics…). And currently it composes a significant part of GTA streaming activity as well.

However, GTA V Online features extremely limited in-game options to achieve this, mostly relying on players using the chat to inform others on their actions and consequences.

In contrast, GTA VI could integrate in-game a lot of the dynamics of popular RP servers. It could also grant more interaction options not exclusively related to combat, and a more user-friendly inventory system (GTA V has a great inventory system for weapons, but everything else is managed through an awkward in-game menu with terrible UX).

That could greatly expand the amount of players that interact with these highly engaging ways of playing.

3) USER GENERATED CONTENT (UGC) & MODDING SUPPORT: 

If we look at high MAU online sandbox games like Roblox or Fortnite, we see a trend of enabling more UGC options to maintain engagement high beyond the capacity of the team to deliver content.

GTA actually has this, but in an unofficial way through modding. This means that Rockstar is actually leaving money on the table because a segment of players and unique experiences are happening and accessible through external, unofficial means.

If, instead, GTA 6 enabled more options to create servers with custom rules and behaviors powered by an in-game scripting system, it could capture back part of that audience, extend its lifetime, and establish itself as a direct competitor to Roblox and Fortnite.

4) HACKING AND GRIEFING PROTECTION: 

In all honesty, the fact that GTA V Online has such a high MAU is a bit surprising to me because to me it feels quite broken.
In my personal experience, non-private instances are often unplayable due to griefing cheaters, and the economy is broken by hackers spawning endless money, which happens quite often.

I know many close friends that have acquired tons of exclusive items and buildings by getting millions of currency from a random hacker (Or course not me. Trust me, I’m clean. No need for Rockstar admins to research my online inventory history).

Even in servers without cheaters, the big number of griefing and PVP mechanics often limit the capacity to play the game seriously: You can spend tons of effort and resources to attempt a heist or do a MC transport just to be killed in the last second by a rando with a machine gun.

So often, this means that the best way to play Online is alone.

If GTA 6 wants a better Online, they need to offer the possibility of non-PVP online experiences (or at least with some limitations), and have better protections in place against cheaters that worsen the experience for everyone.

Ultimately, Rockstar has the tools and ambition to deliver an innovative online experience that sets a new standard, and blurs the lines between a sandbox and an MMO. If they achieve that, GTA VI will not just have a fantastic launch (something almost guaranteed at this point), but greatly surpass its predecessor.

PS.
After finishing this piece, I happened to find a PC Gamer article about the same topic, which to my satisfaction shares many of my opinions. I think this portrays that not only me, but also a significant part of the players, is aware of the limitations of GTA V Online mode.